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Two halves, a whole or leaving a hole?

Beginning with 2023's annual reports companies hammered home one near universal point, "expect a soggy start to 2024 with a strong second half".

As we get into the first quarter's prints, it's indeed quite the damp start; thus far, expectations remain for things to be "back half loaded", etc.

Key questions: what are the prerequisites for that outcome, just where is the fulcrum point, thinking about probabilities and discount rates - where are the air pockets?

br. -john

p.s. this has felt, and continues to feel, like a giant game of chicken between CFO's - someone needs to actually start spending more!


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